Having just finished watching all the Best Picture nominees and getting ready for the 95th Academy Awards, I wanted to put down my predictions for the top categories with who I want to take home the Oscar and who I think will win the award. Looking over the nominees, I think this is one of the strongest groups of potential winners that the Oscars have had in a long time, especially looking at the Best Picture nominees. The Academy Awards have always struggled with representing the line between blockbuster movies and smaller arthouse-style films. This year I think there is great representation from both sides and hopefully a sign of how the Academy is going to handle the awards going forward.
The Academy Awards are one of my favorite annual television specials. I have been watching the Oscars since I was kid and that has continued into adulthood. These awards pay homage to the hard work that goes into entertaining us through the magic of cinema. These awards are not perfect and have struggled with representing people from different backgrounds and races over the years, I can only hope they continue to make strides in that issue since this is the most comprehensive film award show during the year. Alright now that I am done waxing and waning on about how important these awards are to me, let's talk through the top categories and make our predictions!
Best Supporting Actor:
Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin
Judd Hirsch – The Fabelmans
Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All at Once
Brian Tyree Henry – Causeway
Barry Keoghan – The Banshees of Inisherin
I think this category is going to be a runaway for Ke Huy Quan, who plays dutiful husband Waymond Wong. His story about thinking he was never going to be able to act again and for this movie to be his redemption arc is incredible. His performance between the different versions of the husband adds so much to the emotion impact of this movie
Both Gleeson and Keoghan are fantastic in The Banshees of Inisherin. Gleeson plays Padraic’s former best friend Colm and Keoghan plays Dominic, who is a dumb knuckle headed kid who is the product of domestic abuse by his father. I really enjoy both of their performances, but I was surprised how much I enjoyed Keoghan Who I think will win: Ke Huy Quan Who I want to win: Ke Huy Quan Best Supporting Actress: Angela Bassett – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Jamie Lee Curtis – Everything Everywhere All at Once Hong Chau – The Whale Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin Stephanie Hsu – Everything Everywhere All at Once This is one of the strongest categories of the 2023 Academy Awards, everyone nominated has a reason they should win the award. Angela Bassett’s performance in wake of Chadwick Boseman’s death, all the reshoots and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever having to be rebuilt from the ground up with a new story is an achievement. This being the first time an MCU performance is nominated also shows just how strong of a performance it was. She is the emotional pick for this category but that does not take away from how deserving her win here would be.
My personal favorites for Best Supporting Actress are both from Everything Everywhere All at Once. Jamie Lee Curtis’ acting job throughout the multiverse journey is extraordinary. Starting out as just the hard nosed IRS agent that takes her job too seriously, to all the different versions of her we see is such a fun ride that then delivers us an emotional ending that I did not see her character getting at the beginning of the movie. Stephanie Hsu also does a fantastic job playing the daughter Joy. The family trauma, dealing with being in a lesbian relationship with strict Asian relatives, and the feeling children can get when they know their parents are disappointed in them all comes through in her wonderful acting. Like with Curtis, the journey through her different versions across the multiverse is exhilarating and the ending with her mom made me tear up in the movie theater. Who I think will win: Angela Bassett Who I want to win: Stephanie Hsu Best Actor: Brendan Fraiser – The Whale Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin Paul Mescal – Aftersun Austin Butler – Elvis Bill Nighy – Living For me, this is a category that is a race between two nominees: Colin Farrell and Brendan Fraiser. The best story of this award season has been the comeback by Brendan Fraiser, who delivered an emotionally charged and moving performance as Charlie who is a morbidly obese and reclusive English professor who teaches online classes. The way that Fraiser was able to slip into the role, and as someone who has recently gone through my own personal dealings with weight loss, it at times was hard to watch. On the other end of the spectrum is the dark comedy The Banshees of Inisherin lead by Colin Farrell. His performance as Padraic, who is a lovable idiot who is repeatedly called out as being “boring” or “dim”. The interactions with Brendan Gleeson who wants to move on from their friendship, going to dire motives to keep Padraic away from him. One thing I want to call out is the portrayal of Elvis by Austin Butler. I did not enjoy the movie that much, but the performance of Butler did, copying his mannerisms and movements on stage, was well done. I think his acting job was just let down by the overall movie. Who I think will win: Brendan Fraiser Who I want to win: Brendan Fraiser Best Actress: Andrea Riseborough – To Leslie Cate Blanchett – Tar Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All at Once Michelle Williams – The Fabelmans Ana de Armas – Blonde I think any other year this would have been a two-way fight between Cate Blanchett and Michelle Williams, who both put on great performances in their respective movies. I especially liked what Blanchett did in Tar, and that movie deserves a lot of attention for the story it told. This is not just any other year however; this year is Michelle Yeoh’s Yeoh’s performance as Eveyln Wang was the best on-screen performance, I have seen this year, and one of the best I have ever seen in my time watching movies. She can tell this story about how family trauma passes down through generations based on decisions that her parents made, and how her relationship with her father is the same as the one that is developing with her daughter, where she feels that she disappointed him. Between all the crazy actions scenes and the jumping between different realities, Yeoh can keep the character grounded in a hurt filled ballad about mother-daughter love. Who I think will win: Michelle Yeoh Who I want to win: Michelle Yeoh Best Director: Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin Ruben Ostlund – Triangle of Sadness Daniel Scheinert/Daniel Kwan – Everything Everywhere All at Once Todd Field – Tar Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans Again, I think this is another category that any other year would have been hard to predict. Ostlund does a great job with Triangle of Sadness, making a dark comedy that has such a poignant message about class and wealth imbalance. McDonagh continued his great partnership with Colin Farrell and Brendan Gleeson. Steven Spielberg deserves praise for what is really a biographical picture of his life growing up in The Fabelmans. It takes a lot of courage to showcase your own personal childhood trauma and what made you grow into the director you are today. Having the third act of the film highlight how he was bullied in school for being Jewish, with kids yelling anti-sematic slurs at him showcases that courage. Even with these great directorial performances, nothing comes close to Daniel Scheinert and Daniel Kwan creating Everything Everywhere All at Once. The vision these two had to create one of the most unique movies to be nominated for an Academy Award is unbelievable. To be able to thread the line between a great action movie and an emotional, inter-generational family trauma story is incredible. Throw in that Scheinert is from Birmingham, AL and this could be a great runaway night for these two and this movie. Who I think will win: Steven Spielberg (in an upset) Who I want to win: Daniel Scheinert and Daniel Kwan Best Picture: Triangle of Sadness All Quiet on the Western Front Elvis Women Talking The Fabelmans Tar Everything Everywhere All at Once The Banshees of Inisherin Avatar: The Way of Water Top Gun: Maverick In my opinion, this is the most well-rounded Best Picture list of nominees the Academy Awards have put together in years. There is a great mixture of big budget blockbuster movies with Top Gun: Maverick and Avatar: Way of Water, and more traditional Oscar movies like Tar and Women Talking. Top Gun: Maverick is my favorite action movie I have seen since Fast Five. Action movies now have a certain cadence to them, and Maverick felt different. It was paying homage to the movie that came before it but also to what the action movie genre was in the 1980’s. Avatar: The Way of Water continued James Cameron’s mastery of 3D as a film format, crafting a beautiful world that feels like an experience then a movie. The movie on this list that surprised me the most with how much I liked it during my Best Picture watch was Women Talking. This movie is extremely important, especially with what is happening with women’s reproductive rights in America right now. Frances McDormand, Claire Foy, and Rooney Mara put on three great performances and are surrounded by a fantastic supporting cast. The only movie I would not recommend watching is Elvis. It is not a terrible movie, but with this recent string of biographical movies based on music stars, this was the weakest one to come out so far. I normally like what Baz Luhrmann makes, but his usual style did not connect with me when put together with a subject matter in Elvis Presley that does not appeal to me. I have talked about Everything Everywhere All at Once a lot in this blog post, but it really was the best movie I saw in 2022 and came out of nowhere. It is one of those movies that I watched and immediately knew this was one of those films that will be talked about for years to come. I would be shocked if this did not win Best Picture What I think will win: Everything Everywhere All at Once What I want to win: Everything Everywhere All at Once Well, that wraps up who I think will win the Big Five individual awards and Best Picture. I am excited to see what happens with the other awards as well (pulling for Puss in Boots for Best Animated Picture, if you have not seen that go and watch it!) The Academy Awards are a celebration of one of the best media forms and this year seems to be a great year!